Port St. Lucie, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

165
FXUS62 KMLB 310258
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Poor boating conditions continue well offshore into this evening
  for Southeast winds and choppy seas.

- Warming temperatures this week as we hop into April with peak
  heat indices reaching the lower 90s inland from the coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Quieting down after a stormy day. Deep convection has all but
ceased, leaving behind some debris showers and electrified
anvils that continue to produce occasional cloud to ground
lightning extending from near Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure and
southern Space Coasts. This activity will continue to diminish as
it pushes east and offshore, finally coming to and end by around 1
AM or so. Late tonight and into the early morning, winds become
light and with the residual moisture, there is potential for fog
development. Models have not be very consistent with location and
coverage, so for now forecast calls for patchy fog along and north
of the I-4 corridor, but can`t rule out development across other
parts of the forecast area. There is also potential for the
development of locally dense fog that could quickly reduce
visibility to less than a mile. Any fog that forms should clear up
shortly after sunrise as heating promotes mixing and wakes up a
light breeze.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Current-Tonight...Ahead of precip southeast winds have been
higher than models forecast; up to 15 mph across the interior and
15-20 mph along the coast - ALL with higher gusts. Highs today
near 80F at the coast and L80s (possibly M80s) across the
interior. Convection has been increasing in both coverage and
intensity early this afternoon and expect this trend to continue
into early evening. Northward movement for now and forecast is for
cells to veer more SWRLY later on which will take storms off of
the coast and across the local coastal waters. There will be a
collision of the EC/WC sea breezes over the eastern peninsula
early this evening with storms stacking up across coastal counties
where highest rain chances will exist.

Some locations will see multiple rounds of precip, which could add
up locally to 2-4 inches. The WPC has outlooked all of ECFL in a
Marginal (Day 1) Risk for potential excessive rainfall. There still
could be some minor/nuisance flooding even though we have been very
dry overall recently. Other primary impacts include occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph - perhaps a
couple of storms with gusts to 60 mph, small to coin-size hail, and
a low chance for a brief tornado. All of ECFL remains outlooked
by the SPC for a Marginal threat of severe storms. Activity will
wind down mid-late evening, with land areas mostly dry overnight.

Overnight lows well above climo in the 60s areawide with conditions
humid. Southerly winds become light again this evening. While not
introduced in the grids/zones, at least yet, we may have to monitor
for some patchy fog late overnight into early Mon morning.

Mon-Mon Night...A weak frontal boundary pushes further into the Deep
South, while remaining north of ECFL. An offshore (SSW-SW) wind
component develops, but "backs" onshore in the afternoon at the
coast with (delayed) sea breeze development. Inland push of this
feature is slow and perhaps futile (Volusia coast). It will likely
be a feature for late day/evening storm development along the coast.
Another feature to watch is a southward moving outflow boundary from
previous (Sun) night`s and Mon morning (decaying) convection. This
could provide an additional enhancement for convection northward.
It will remain cold aloft (H500: -10C to -11C), though shortwave
energy will be minimal. Lower PWATs at least initially will surge
upward along the coast late in day/early evening in proximity to
the sea breeze. At present, we carry ISOLD-SCT (20-30pct; except
40pct along the coast) coverage for mainly late on Mon. Surface
heating could play a role as max temps climb into the M80s at the
coast and U80s inland. A few strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible near the coast. Activity will move off of the
coast thru mid-late evening, then mainly dry over land overnight.
Mild temps overnight continue in the M60s to near 70F.

Tue-Sun...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...Rain chances
decrease mid to late week as as mid level ridge builds over the Gulf
and FL peninsula. Temperatures will remain above normal, reaching
the upper 80s/near 90 interior while holding in the mid 80s coast
thanks to an onshore (SE) flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Tonight...Small craft should continue to exercise caution well
offshore in the Gulf Stream for lingering 6 ft seas. Florida and
the local Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Atlantic ridge axis as it shifts south. Southerly winds 10-15 kts
shift from the SSE-S to the SSW-SW by morning. Seas 2-5 ft outside
of the Gulf Stream. Scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms remain possible through the night, mainly in the Gulf
Stream.

Mon- Thu...Previous Marine Forecast Discussion...The Atlc
ridge axis relocates south of the waters by early Mon which will
continue to veer the winds to the southwest. Then a weak frontal
boundary stalls over north FL. The pressure gradient will weaken
and allow winds to decrease and seas to gradually subside. This
will improve boating conditions as seas fall below 6 FT offshore
Mon aftn and below 5 FT Tue aftn. A reinforcing high pressure to
the north will build over the area Wed-Thu and increase the SE
wind flow around 15 knots and seas becoming choppy once again and
building up to 6 FT offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

As of 23Z, line of +TSRA has pushed east of the I-4/north
terminals, and is approaching KTIX-KMLB. Based on trends and
latest guidance (for what that`s been worth), there`s potential
for the line of TSRA to hold together all the way to KVRB-KSUA.
Holding off TEMPOs for now, but do have VCTS running through 06Z,
and will AMD in TEMPOs if needed. Mainly VFR conditions
afterwards. There`s some potential for fog, mainly across the
north. but models have been inconsistent at best, and don`t have
confidence to include in TAFs. ISO TSRA possible Monday afternoon
along a sea breeze collision INVOF of the I-4 terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  86  66  84 /  50  20  20  20
MCO  66  88  69  88 /  40  20  20  20
MLB  66  84  66  84 /  70  30  30  20
VRB  66  86  66  85 /  60  30  40  10
LEE  66  87  68  87 /  30  20  10  20
SFB  66  88  68  88 /  50  20  10  20
ORL  67  88  69  88 /  40  20  20  20
FPR  66  86  66  85 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley