Port St. Lucie, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS62 KMLB 271915
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- An active weather pattern persists into next week, with a
  Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather today.

- Hot temperatures and increasing humidity will lead to peak heat
  indices 100 to 105 degrees. Proper precautions should be taken
  to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Current-Tonight...Convection has developed along much of the east
central Florida coast this afternoon, with outflow boundaries from
the convection helping to propagate further development inland.
This is forecast to continue over the next several hours, with
increasing coverage of showers and storms anticipated across the
interior. While storms have so far remained sub-severe, the area
does continue to remain under a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe
weather. The 15Z XMR sounding showed MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and
modest low-level lapse rates (7.1 C/km), with prevailing southwest
steering flow winds. Gusty winds and lightning continue to be the
primary concerns, with small hail possible in stronger storms.
Shear and SRH remains unfavorable, though brief funnel cloud or
tornado development cannot be ruled out along boundary collisions.
Activity is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours, with
ongoing activity anticipated across the offshore waters. Lows
overnight in the low to mid 70s.

This Weekend...An active summertime weather pattern is forecast to
persist across east central Florida through the weekend. The
Atlantic ridge extends westward towards the peninsula, remaining
draped across central Florida. Prevailing south-southwest flow will
continue to bring moisture northward across the peninsula, with
PWATs up to 2 inches possible locally. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to develop each afternoon, struggling to move inland due to
west-southwest winds aloft. Showers and storms are anticipated to
develop along the sea breeze, with an eventual sea breeze collision
across the eastern half of Florida coinciding with the greatest
coverage each day. 500 mb temperatures remain around -8 to -7C, with
modest low-level lapse rates continuing to help support convective
development. Storm threats continue to be lightning strikes, gusty
winds up to 50 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours. Minor flooding
in some spots may be possible, particularly where showers and storms
have little movement and in places that have received sufficient
rainfall from previous days. Any activity that develops is forecast
to diminish into the overnight hours, with showers and storms
continuing across the local Atlantic waters. Outside of convection,
temperatures reach the low 90s on Saturday, and the upper 80s to low
90s on Sunday. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 103 on
Saturday, remaining in the upper 90s on Sunday. Lows stay near
normal in the low to mid 70s.

Next Week (previous modified)...The Atlantic ridge axis remains
draped over the local area early next week, then is forecast to
drift southward through late week. Meanwhile, the second upper level
low meanders around the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. A
summer-time pattern will, therefore, continue, with south to
southwesterly winds supporting a continued collision over the
forecast area. High coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms
is expected to continue through the holiday and towards the end of
the week, with PoPs 60-70% each day. Heat will remain a concern due
to humid conditions and heat indices 100-105 degrees. Residents and
visitors should continue to use caution if spending prolonged
periods outside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The Atlantic high is forecast to remain generally in place,
resulting in favorable boating conditions across the local
Atlantic waters outside of convection. Southwesterly winds remain
below 15 knots each day, becoming more southeasterly each
afternoon along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops
and attempts to move inland. Seas stay between 1 to 3 feet through
the weekend and into next week. The persistent southwest flow will
lead to offshore-moving showers and storms developing in the
afternoons along the sea breeze, with ongoing activity forecast
across the offshore waters during the overnight hours. Any storms
that develop may be capable of producing frequent lightning
strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, small hail, and heavy
downpours.

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Convection has fired off along the coast, with TEMPOs in effect
through 20Z for reduced VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Coverage of
showers and storms are forecast to to increase across the interior
through the remainder of this afternoon, with TEMPOs across the
interior terminals from 18 to 24Z. Activity is forecast to
diminish after 02Z across the area. Winds become light and
variable to calm overnight, picking back up out of the SW after
15Z across the interior terminals and DAB. From TIX southward, the
east coast sea breeze slowly develops, with winds becoming more
onshore from 15Z and beyond. VCTS possible along the sea breeze as
it develops, with increasing coverage forecast across the interior
once again in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  91  73  89 /  30  70  50  70
MCO  74  93  74  90 /  50  70  50  70
MLB  75  90  74  88 /  40  60  50  70
VRB  72  91  71  89 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  74  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  70
SFB  74  93  74  91 /  40  70  50  70
ORL  75  93  75  90 /  50  70  50  70
FPR  71  90  71  88 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen